Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Inhibition of human mesangial cell proliferation by targeting T-Type calcium channels

Background: Aberrant glomerular mesangial cell (MC) proliferation is a common finding in renal diseases. T-type calcium channels (T-CaCN) play an important role in the proliferation of a number of cell types, including vascular smooth muscle cells. The hypothesis that T-CaCN may play a role in the proliferation of human MC was investigated. Methods: The presence of T-CaCN in primary cultures of human MC was examined using voltage clamping and by RT-PCR. The effect of calcium channel inhibitors, and of siRNA directed against the Cav3.2 T-CaCN isoform, on MC proliferation was assessed using the microculture tetrazolium assay and nuclear BrdU incorporation. Results: Human MC express only the Cav3.2 T-CaCN isoform. Co-incubation of MC with a T-CaCN inhibitor (mibefradil, TH1177 or Ni2+) results in a concentration-dependent attenuation of proliferation. This effect cannot be attributed to direct drug-induced cytotoxicity or apoptosis and is not seen with verapamil, an L-type channel blocker. Transfection of MC with siRNA results in knockdown of T-CaCN Cav3.2 mRNA and a clear attenuation of MC proliferation. Conclusions: These results demonstrate for the first time an important role for T-CaCN in human MC proliferation. This could potentially lead to a novel therapy in the treatment of proliferative renal diseases.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) inhibit vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation via differential effects on the cell cycle

Abnormal vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) proliferation plays an important role in the pathogenesis of both atherosclerosis and restenosis. Recent studies suggest that high-dose salicylates, in addition to inhibiting cyclooxygenase activity, exert an antiproliferative effect on VSMC growth both in-vitro and in-vivo. However, whether all non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) exert similar anti proliferative effects on VSMCs, and do so via a common mechanism of action, remains to be shown. In this study, we demonstrate that the NSAIDs aspirin, sodium salicylate, diclofenac, ibuprofen, indometacin and sulindac induce a dose-dependent inhibition of proliferation in rat A10 VSMCs in the absence of significant cytotoxicity. Flow cytometric analyses showed that exposure of A10 cells to diclofenac, indometacin, ibuprofen and sulindac, in the presence of the mitotic inhibitor, nocodazole, led to a significant G0/G1 arrest. In contrast, the salicylates failed to induce a significant G1 arrest since flow cytometry profiles were not significantly different from control cells. Cyclin A levels were elevated, and hyperphosphorylated p107 was present at significant levels, in salicylate-treated A10 cells, consistent with a post-G1/S block, whereas cyclin A levels were low, and hypophosphorylated p107 was the dominant form, in cells treated with other NSAIDs consistent with a G1 arrest. The ubiquitously expressed cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) inhibitors, p21 and p27, were increased in all NSAID-treated cells. Our results suggest that diclofenac, indometacin, ibuprofen and sulindac inhibit VSMC proliferation by arresting the cell cycle in the G1 phase, whereas the growth inhibitory effect of salicylates probably affects the late S and/or G2/M phases. Irrespective of mechanism, our results suggest that NSAIDs might be of benefit in the treatment of certain vasculoproliferative disorders.

Inhibition of vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation by non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs

Abnormal vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) proliferation is known to play an important role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis, restenosis and instent stenosis. Recent studies suggest that salicylates, in addition to inhibiting cyclooxygenase activity, exert an antiproliferative effect on VSMC growth both in vitro and in vivo. However, whether all non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) exert similar antiproliferative effects on VSMCs, and do so via a common mechanism of action, remains unknown. In the present study, we demonstrated that the NSAIDs, aspirin, ibuprofen and sulindac induced a dose-dependent inhibition of proliferation in rat A10 VSMCs (IC50 = 1666 mumol/L, 937 mumol/L and 520 mumol/L, respectively). These drugs did not show significant cytotoxic effects as determined by LDH release assay, even at the highest concentrations tested (aspirin, 5000 mumol/L; ibuprofen, 2500 mumol/L; and sulindac, 1000 mumol/L). Flow cytometric analyses showed that a 48 h exposure of A10 VSMCs to ibuprofen (1000 mumol/L) and sulindac (750 mumol/L) led to a significant G1 arrest (from 68.7 +/- 2.0% of cells in G1 to 76.6 +/- 2.2% and 75.8 +/- 2.2%, respectively, p < 0.05). In contrast, aspirin (2500 mumol/L) failed to induce a significant G1 arrest (68.1 +/- 5.2%). Clearer evidence of a G1 block was obtained by treatment of cells with the mitotic inhibitor, nocodazole (40 ng/ml), for the final 24 h of the experiment. Under these conditions, aspirin still failed to induce a G1 arrest (from 25.9 +/- 10.9% of cells in G1 to 19.6 +/- 2.3%) whereas ibuprofen and sulindac led to a significant accumulation of cells in G1(51.8% +/- 17.2% and 54.1% +/- 10.6%, respectively, p < 0.05). These results indicate that ibuprofen and sulindac inhibit VSMC proliferation by arresting the cell cycle in the G1 phase whereas the effect of aspirin appears to be independent of any special phase of the cell cycle. Irrespective of mechanism, our results suggest that NSAIDs might be of benefit to the treatment of vascular proliferative disorders.

Past, present and future mathematical models for buildings (i)

This is the first of two articles presenting a detailed review of the historical evolution of mathematical models applied in the development of building technology, including conventional buildings and intelligent buildings. After presenting the technical differences between conventional and intelligent buildings, this article reviews the existing mathematical models, the abstract levels of these models, and their links to the literature for intelligent buildings. The advantages and limitations of the applied mathematical models are identified and the models are classified in terms of their application range and goal. We then describe how the early mathematical models, mainly physical models applied to conventional buildings, have faced new challenges for the design and management of intelligent buildings and led to the use of models which offer more flexibility to better cope with various uncertainties. In contrast with the early modelling techniques, model approaches adopted in neural networks, expert systems, fuzzy logic and genetic models provide a promising method to accommodate these complications as intelligent buildings now need integrated technologies which involve solving complex, multi-objective and integrated decision problems.

Past, present and future mathematical models for buildings (ii)

This article is the second part of a review of the historical evolution of mathematical models applied in the development of building technology. The first part described the current state of the art and contrasted various models with regard to the applications to conventional buildings and intelligent buildings. It concluded that mathematical techniques adopted in neural networks, expert systems, fuzzy logic and genetic models, that can be used to address model uncertainty, are well suited for modelling intelligent buildings. Despite the progress, the possible future development of intelligent buildings based on the current trends implies some potential limitations of these models. This paper attempts to uncover the fundamental limitations inherent in these models and provides some insights into future modelling directions, with special focus on the techniques of semiotics and chaos. Finally, by demonstrating an example of an intelligent building system with the mathematical models that have been developed for such a system, this review addresses the influences of mathematical models as a potential aid in developing intelligent buildings and perhaps even more advanced buildings for the future.

Integration of chaos theory and mathematical models in building simulation: Part I: Literature review

Current mathematical models in building research have been limited in most studies to linear dynamics systems. A literature review of past studies investigating chaos theory approaches in building simulation models suggests that as a basis chaos model is valid and can handle the increasingly complexity of building systems that have dynamic interactions among all the distributed and hierarchical systems on the one hand, and the environment and occupants on the other. The review also identifies the paucity of literature and the need for a suitable methodology of linking chaos theory to mathematical models in building design and management studies. This study is broadly divided into two parts and presented in two companion papers. Part (I) reviews the current state of the chaos theory models as a starting point for establishing theories that can be effectively applied to building simulation models. Part (II) develops conceptual frameworks that approach current model methodologies from the theoretical perspective provided by chaos theory, with a focus on the key concepts and their potential to help to better understand the nonlinear dynamic nature of built environment systems. Case studies are also presented which demonstrate the potential usefulness of chaos theory driven models in a wide variety of leading areas of building research. This study distills the fundamental properties and the most relevant characteristics of chaos theory essential to building simulation scientists, initiates a dialogue and builds bridges between scientists and engineers, and stimulates future research about a wide range of issues on building environmental systems.

Integration of chaos theory and mathematical models in building simulation: Part II: Conceptual frameworks

Current mathematical models in building research have been limited in most studies to linear dynamics systems. A literature review of past studies investigating chaos theory approaches in building simulation models suggests that as a basis chaos model is valid and can handle the increasing complexity of building systems that have dynamic interactions among all the distributed and hierarchical systems on the one hand, and the environment and occupants on the other. The review also identifies the paucity of literature and the need for a suitable methodology of linking chaos theory to mathematical models in building design and management studies. This study is broadly divided into two parts and presented in two companion papers. Part (I), published in the previous issue, reviews the current state of the chaos theory models as a starting point for establishing theories that can be effectively applied to building simulation models. Part (II) develop conceptual frameworks that approach current model methodologies from the theoretical perspective provided by chaos theory, with a focus on the key concepts and their potential to help to better understand the nonlinear dynamic nature of built environment systems. Case studies are also presented which demonstrate the potential usefulness of chaos theory driven models in a wide variety of leading areas of building research. This study distills the fundamental properties and the most relevant characteristics of chaos theory essential to (1) building simulation scientists and designers (2) initiating a dialogue between scientists and engineers, and (3) stimulating future research on a wide range of issues involved in designing and managing building environmental systems.

Neuromuscular junction morphology, fiber-type proportions, and satellite-cell proliferation rates are altered in MyoD(-/-) mice

Gene compensation by members of the myogenic regulatory factor (MRF) family has been proposed to explain the apparent normal adult phenotype of MyoD(-/-) mice. Nerve and field stimulation were used to investigate contraction properties of muscle from MyoD(-/-) mice, and molecular approaches were used to investigate satellite-cell behavior. We demonstrate that MyoD deletion results in major alterations in the organization of the neuromuscular junction, which have a dramatic influence on the physiological contractile properties of skeletal muscle. Second, we show that the lineage progression of satellite cells (especially initial proliferation) in the absence of MyoD is abnormal and linked to perturbations in the nuclear localization of beta-catenin, a key readout of canonical Wnt signaling. These results show that MyoD has unique functions in both developing and adult skeletal muscle that are not carried out by other members of the MRF family.

Canonical Wnt signalling induces satellite-cell proliferation during adult skeletal muscle regeneration

Satellite cells represent the stem cell population of adult skeletal muscle. The molecular mechanisms that control the proliferation of satellite cells are not well understood. In this study, we show that in response to injury, myofibres activate Wnt ligand transcription and activate a reporter cell line that is sensitive to the canonical Wnt-signalling pathway. Activated satellite cells on isolated cultured myofibres show robust expression of activated-β-catenin (Act-β-Cat), a key downstream transcriptional coactivator of canonical Wnt signalling. We provide evidence that the Wnt family of secreted glycoproteins act on satellite cells in a ligand-specific manner. Overexpression of Wnt1, Wnt3a or Wnt5a protein causes a dramatic increase in satellite-cell proliferation. By contrast, exposure of satellite cells to Wnt4 or Wnt6 diminishes this process. Moreover, we show that the prolonged satellite-cell quiescence induced by inhibitory Wnt is reversible and exposing inhibited satellite cells to stimulatory Wnt signalling restores their proliferation rate. Stimulatory Wnt proteins induce premature satellite cell BrdU incorporation as well as nuclear translocation of Act-β-Cat. Finally, we provide evidence that the Act-β-Cat translocation observed in single fibres during in vitro culture also occurs in cases of acute and chronic skeletal muscle regeneration in rodents and humans. We propose that Wnt proteins may be key factors that regulate the rate of satellite-cell proliferation on adult muscle fibres during the wound-healing response.

Chickpea (Cicer arietinum) and other plant-derived protease inhibitor concentrates inhibit breast and prostate cancer cell proliferation in vitro

The soybean-derived protease inhibitor, Bowman-Birk inhibitor (BBI), is currently showing great promise as a novel cancer chemopreventive agent. In contrast to the wealth of research conducted on this compound, the anticancer effects of protease inhibitors isolated from other leguminous sources have received limited attention. In the current study, 7 protease inhibitor concentrates (PICs) were isolated from various leguminous sources (including soybean) and characterized. The effects of PICs on the proliferation of breast and prostate cancer cells were investigated in vitro. Chickpea PIC significantly inhibited the viability of MDA-MB-231 breast cancer and PC-3 and LNCaP prostate cancer cells at all concentrations tested (25-400 μg/ml). In addition, kidney bean (200, 400 μg/ml), soybean (50, 100 μg/ml), and mungbean (100, 200 μg/ml) PICs inhibited LNCaP cell viability. These findings suggest that leguminous PICs may possess similar anticancer properties to that of soybean BBI and deserve further study as possible chemopreventive agents.

The secretome of alginate-encapsulated limbal epithelial stem cells modulates corneal epithelial cell proliferation

Limbal epithelial stem cells may ameliorate limbal stem cell deficiency through secretion of therapeutic proteins, delivered to the cornea in a controlled manner using hydrogels. In the present study the secretome of alginate-encapsulated limbal epithelial stem cells is investigated. Conditioned medium was generated from limbal epithelial stem cells encapsulated in 1.2% (w/v) calcium alginate gels. Conditioned medium proteins separated by 1-D gel electrophoresis were visualized by silver staining. Proteins of interest including secreted protein acidic and rich in cysteine, profilin-1, and galectin-1 were identified by immunoblotting. The effect of conditioned medium (from alginate-encapsulated limbal epithelial stem cells) on corneal epithelial cell proliferation was quantified and shown to significantly inhibit (Pproliferation of epithelial cells, this protein may be responsible, at least in part, for inhibition of corneal epithelial cell proliferation. We conclude that limbal epithelial stem cells encapsulated in alginate gels may regulate corneal epithelialisation through secretion of inhibitory proteins.

Heme oxygenase-1 regulates cell proliferation via carbon monoxide-mediated inhibition of T-type Ca2+ channels

Induction of the antioxidant enzyme heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) affords cellular protection and suppresses proliferation of vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) associated with a variety of pathological cardiovascular conditions including myocardial infarction and vascular injury. However, the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. Over-expression of Cav3.2 T-type Ca2+ channels in HEK293 cells raised basal [Ca2+]i and increased proliferation as compared with non-transfected cells. Proliferation and [Ca2+]i levels were reduced to levels seen in non-transfected cells either by induction of HO-1 or exposure of cells to the HO-1 product, carbon monoxide (CO) (applied as the CO releasing molecule, CORM-3). In the aortic VSMC line A7r5, proliferation was also inhibited by induction of HO-1 or by exposure of cells to CO, and patch-clamp recordings indicated that CO inhibited T-type (as well as L-type) Ca2+ currents in these cells. Finally, in human saphenous vein smooth muscle cells, proliferation was reduced by T-type channel inhibition or by HO-1 induction or CO exposure. The effects of T-type channel blockade and HO-1 induction were non-additive. Collectively, these data indicate that HO-1 regulates proliferation via CO-mediated inhibition of T-type Ca2+ channels. This signalling pathway provides a novel means by which proliferation of VSMCs (and other cells) may be regulated therapeutically.

The impact of date palm fruits and their component polyphenols, on gut microbial ecology, bacterial metabolites and colon cancer cell proliferation

The fruit of the date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) is a rich source of dietary fibre and polyphenols. We have investigated gut bacterial changes induced by the whole date fruit extract (digested date extract; DDE) and its polyphenol-rich extract (date polyphenol extract; DPE) using faecal, pH-controlled, mixed batch cultures mimicking the distal part of the human large intestine, and utilising an array of microbial group-specific 16S rRNA oligonucleotide probes. Fluorescence microscopic enumeration indicated that there was a significant increase in the growth of bifidobacteria in response to both treatments, whilst whole dates also increased bacteroides at 24 h and the total bacterial counts at later fermentation time points when compared with DPE alone. Bacterial metabolism of whole date fruit led to the production of SCFA, with acetate significantly increasing following bacterial incubation with DDE. In addition, the production of flavonoid aglycones (myricetin, luteolin, quercetin and apigenin) and the anthocyanidin petunidin in less than 1 h was also observed. Lastly, the potential of DDE, DPE and metabolites to inhibit Caco-2 cell growth was investigated, indicating that both were capable of potentially acting as antiproliferative agents in vitro, following a 48 h exposure. This potential to inhibit growth was reduced following fermentation. Together these data suggest that consumption of date fruits may enhance colon health by increasing beneficial bacterial growth and inhibiting the proliferation of colon cancer cells. This is an early suggestion that date intake by humans may aid in the maintenance of bowel health and even the reduction of colorectal cancer development.